极端天气与人力资本形成：来自清代中国的证据

摘要

Weather shocks can constrain educational investment and human capital formation. In Qing China, education spending rose and fell with weather-sensitive farm income. Using a two-century panel (1646–1904) covering 234 prefectures, we find that a drought occurring one year before the examinations and additional droughts within the past five years reduce jinshi (the highest degree in the imperial examination system) density by approximately 6 % and 2.6 % per period, respectively. Adaptive measures such as the introduction of sweet potatoes, savings from surplus years, and flexible pricing mechanisms prove effective in mitigating drought effects. For robustness, we proxy regional recording capacity with the word count of meteorological entries and augment the baseline with controls for social unrest and epidemic shocks, with results remaining stable. By bringing long-run historical evidence to bear, this study enriches the literature on how extreme weather affects human capital formation.