Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
为资源而战：一个统一增长模型
Fighting for resources: a unified growth model of the
摘要
This paper interprets the Great Divergence as the cumulative influence of small asymmetries in technology or various initial conditions, amplified through conflict over resources. It introduces a tractable framework that integrates demography, technological progress, and conflict into a unified growth model. The amplification effect of resource appropriation is characterized by conflict multipliers in both the short- and long-run. Conflict is a source of substantial divergence, as the appropriation of resources allows some countries to develop faster at the expense of others. Reconvergence is, however, possible through population growth, due to strategic complementarities in fertility decisions and staggered demographic transitions. Rich and non-linear dynamics display key features of comparative economic development between the West and the Global South, but also shed light on a variety of historical case studies that share such dynamics of divergence and reconvergence, as well as more dramatic episodes of population extinction in a dominated country. Our framework can easily be extended to study the role of resource exhaustion or the fundamental trade-off between trade and conflict.
中文摘要
本文将大分流解释为技术或初始条件中微小不对称性通过资源冲突放大后的累积影响。我们构建了一个可处理的框架，将人口学、技术进步与冲突整合为统一增长模型。资源侵占的放大效应通过短期与长期冲突乘数得以刻画。冲突是导致显著分流的根源——部分国家通过侵占他国资源实现更快发展。然而，由于生育决策中的战略互补性与交错人口转型，人口增长可能推动重新趋同。丰富的非线性动态既展现了西方与全球南方比较经济发展的关键特征，也揭示了共享这种分流与趋同动态的多种历史案例，以及被支配国家中更为剧烈的人口灭绝事件。本框架可便捷扩展至资源枯竭作用或贸易与冲突间根本权衡的研究。