Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
金融科技、气候冲击与农地利用转型：来自中国农户的证据
Fintech, climate shocks, and agricultural land use transition: Evidence from farmers in China
摘要
The expansion of non-grain production under climate change exerts big threat to national food security. This study investigates the nonlinear effects of climate change shocks (CCS) on farmers’ non-grain production decisions (NGPD) and the moderating mechanisms of Fintech. Using data from China Land Economic Survey (CLES) during 2020–2022, we find that CCS has an “inverted U-shaped” nonlinear impact on NGPD. Fintech significantly moderates this relationship by smoothing the curve and shifting the turning point leftward. Mechanism analysis shows Fintech achieves this by enhancing farmers’ factor allocation and risk decision abilities. Furthermore, Fintech acts as an effective substitute for traditional rural finance by overcoming constraints in formal supply and informal networks. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that Fintech strengthens agricultural resilience in major grain-producing areas but has insignificant effects on agricultural entrepreneur households, warning against profit-driven capital inducing NGPD. This study offers empirical evidence for leveraging digital finance to secure agricultural planting structures.
中文摘要
气候变化下非粮化扩张对国家粮食安全构成重大威胁。本研究考察气候冲击（CCS）对农户非粮化生产决策（NGPD）的非线性影响及金融科技的调节机制。基于2020—2022年中国土地经济调查（CLES）数据，研究发现CCS对NGPD具有“倒U型”非线性影响。金融科技通过平滑曲线并使拐点左移显著调节这一关系。机制分析表明，金融科技通过增强农户要素配置能力和风险决策能力实现上述调节。此外，金融科技通过克服正规供给约束和非正规网络约束，成为传统农村金融的有效替代。异质性分析显示，金融科技增强了粮食主产区的农业韧性，但对农业创业型农户的影响不显著，警示需防范利润驱动型资本诱发非粮化。本研究为利用数字金融保障农业种植结构提供经验证据。