Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
信息不对称下的企业更替：坦桑尼亚农资经销商部门
Firm turnover under asymmetric information: Tanzania's agro‐dealer sector
摘要
We study firm turnover (i.e., entry and exit) and its consumer implications in a market characterized by asymmetric information. Using a three‐round census of agro‐dealers in Tanzania's Morogoro Region, we document annual firm entry and exit rates of 33% and 17%, respectively. These rates are more than double those observed for non‐agricultural micro‐, small‐, and medium‐enterprises in comparable low‐income countries. To analyze how these high rates of entry and exit affect consumers, we develop a theoretical model of firm turnover under asymmetric information and empirically test its predictions for farmers. We find that farmers' market‐level beliefs about agricultural input quality are systematically related to agro‐dealer turnover, with the relationship depending on farmers' prior perceptions of market quality. Farmers report more favorable beliefs about agricultural input quality in markets with recent agro‐dealer exits, consistent with our model when consumers perceive exiting firms as having sold low‐quality products. In contrast, farmers who usually purchased agricultural inputs from the same agro‐dealer expect new market entrants to provide lower‐quality agricultural inputs, suggesting farmers rely on incumbent relationships to manage quality uncertainty in markets with information asymmetries. As a result, agro‐dealer turnover may shape and even attenuate farmers' technology adoption.
中文摘要
我们研究了在信息不对称特征市场中企业更替（即进入与退出）及其对消费者的影响。利用坦桑尼亚莫罗戈罗地区农资经销商的三轮普查数据，我们记录了年度企业进入率和退出率分别为33%和17%。这些比率是可比的低收入国家中非农业微型、小型和中型企业所观察到的比率的两倍以上。为分析这些高进入率和退出率如何影响消费者，我们构建了一个信息不对称下企业更替的理论模型，并针对农民对其预测进行了实证检验。我们发现，农民对农业投入品质量的市场层面信念与农资经销商更替存在系统性关联，且这种关系取决于农民对市场质量的先前认知。在近期有农资经销商退出的市场中，农民报告对农业投入品质量持有更有利的信念，这与我们的模型一致，即消费者认为退出企业销售了低质量产品。相比之下，通常从同一农资经销商购买农业投入品的农民预期新市场进入者会提供质量更低的农业投入品，这表明农民依赖既有关系来管理信息不对称市场中的质量不确定性。因此，农资经销商更替可能塑造甚至削弱农民的技术采纳。