Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
财政整顿：暂时成本与持久伤痕
Fiscal consolidation: Temporary costs versus lasting scars
摘要
Public debt is at or near record highs across the OECD, increasing the pressure on governments to restore fiscal sustainability over time. This column draws on new cross-country evidence showing that the output costs of fiscal consolidation are modest and short-lived on average, and that lasting scars are hard to detect. But averages conceal a critical asymmetry: consolidations launched in high-debt environments are markedly more contractionary, and in more than half of the episodes in the sample the debt ratio was still higher three years after consolidation. Initial fiscal conditions matter more for outcomes than the choice between spending cuts and tax increases.
中文摘要
经合组织各国的公共债务正处于或接近历史高位，这加大了政府随时间推移恢复财政可持续性的压力。本专栏借鉴新的跨国证据表明，财政整顿的产出成本平均而言温和且短暂，难以发现持久性创伤。但平均值掩盖了一个关键的不对称性：在高债务环境下启动的整顿具有明显更强的紧缩效应，且在样本中超过一半的情形下，整顿三年后债务比率仍更高。初始财政状况对结果的影响大于削减支出与增税之间的选择。