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财政民粹主义与货币政策规则
Fiscal populism and monetary policy rules
摘要
Populism may not only have contemporary but also long-term effects on the macroeconomy. Using data for advanced economies and emerging markets since 1960, this column explores the historical links between populist regimes, fiscal monetisation, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Historically, left-leaning populist regimes are linked to increases in central bank lending to the central government. In turn, central bank lending is associated with marked increases in inflation. Today, central banks with a history of deficit monetisation and left-wing populist regimes respond more strongly to deviations of inflation expectations from target, suggesting they still need to signal their independence more forcefully.
中文摘要
民粹主义不仅可能对宏观经济产生当代影响，还可能产生长期影响。本文利用1960年以来发达经济体和新兴市场的相关数据，探讨民粹主义政权、财政货币化与通货膨胀之间的历史联系，以及这些联系如何影响21世纪的货币政策。从历史上看，左倾民粹主义政权与中央银行对中央政府贷款的增加相关联。反过来，中央银行贷款又与通货膨胀的显著上升相关。如今，那些有赤字货币化历史和左翼民粹主义政权背景的中央银行，对通胀预期偏离目标的反应更为强烈，这表明它们仍需更有力地彰显其独立性。