Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文

FOMC供给侧沟通与长期通胀预期

FOMC Supply-Side Communication and Long-Term Inflation Expectations

Abhinay Mishra, Kshitij Bhalchandra Shingwekar

打开原文页面 DOI：10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113321

来源

Economics Letters · 期刊论文

本站首次发现

2026-10-21 06:44

日期信息

官方在线 2026-10-20 · 来源：RSS

主题

环境与气候金融宏观与货币公共与政治经济学

摘要

We investigate whether topics emphasized in FOMC communication affect market inflation expectations beyond policy-rate decisions. Using Fed Chair statements from 2011 to 2026, we measure attention across six macroeconomic themes and examine meeting-day changes in the 5y-5y forward inflation break-even rate. Controlling for the two-year Treasury yield, we find that attention to supply-side risks raises inflation expectations, mainly through energy and supply-chain narratives, whereas demand-side attention has no significant effect. These findings suggest that market inflation expectations respond to risks emphasized in central bank communication, identifying narrative focus as a distinct monetary policy communication channel.

中文摘要

我们考察联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）沟通中强调的主题是否会在政策利率决定之外影响市场通胀预期。利用2011年至2026年美联储主席声明，我们衡量对六个宏观经济主题的关注度，并考察会议当日5年-5年远期通胀盈亏平衡率的变化。在控制两年期美国国债收益率后，我们发现对供给侧风险的关注会提高通胀预期，主要通过能源和供应链叙事实现，而对需求侧的关注则没有显著影响。这些发现表明，市场通胀预期会对央行沟通中强调的风险作出反应，从而将叙事焦点识别为一种独立的货币政策沟通渠道。