Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
粮食价格危机与国内谷物市场的隔离
Food Price Crises and the Insulation of Domestic Grain Markets
摘要
Studies that analyze the transmission of food prices from international to domestic markets for large sets of countries and products assume that price relationships are time‐invariant. However, studies that look in detail at individual countries and products show that countries respond to increasing international food prices with measures that increase the insulation of their domestic markets and thus weaken international‐to‐domestic price transmission. We analyze relationships between international prices and a large set of domestic prices for wheat, yellow and white maize, and rice using a smooth‐transition error correction model. This specification relaxes the assumption of time‐invariant price transmission by allowing price relationships and domestic market insulation to vary over time depending on international price levels. The results confirm that international‐to‐domestic price transmission weakens in many countries during periods of high international prices, such as 2007/08 and 2022. Our findings highlight a collective action problem: as more countries insulate, the global trading system's capacity to buffer shocks diminishes, amplifying volatility and food security risks.
中文摘要
摘要 针对多国多产品国际与国内食品价格传导关系的研究，通常假设价格关系具有时间不变性。然而，聚焦单个国家与产品的细化研究表明，各国面对国际食品价格上涨时，会采取增强国内市场隔离度的措施，从而削弱国际与国内价格之间的传导效应。本文采用平滑转换误差修正模型，分析国际价格与小麦、黄玉米、白玉米及大米等大量国内价格之间的关系。该模型通过允许价格关系及国内市场隔离度随国际价格水平动态变化，突破了时间不变性假设的局限。研究结果证实，在国际价格高涨时期（如2007/08年度及2022年），许多国家的国际-国内价格传导效应显著减弱。这一发现揭示了集体行动困境：随着更多国家采取隔离措施，全球贸易体系缓冲冲击的能力持续下降，进而加剧价格波动与粮食安全风险。