Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
从全球价值链到本地就业：探究外商直接投资对欧盟27国就业创造的效应
From Global Value Chains to Local Jobs: Exploring FDI-induced Job Creation in EU-27
摘要
This study examines how global value chain (GVC) integration is associated with greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI)-induced job creation across EU-27 country-sector pairs. We combine project-level fDi Markets employment data with TiVA-based GVC indicators and estimate a static fixed-effects IV-GMM labour-demand framework using internal lagged instruments. Because the identification strategy does not rely on an external source of exogenous variation, the estimates are interpreted as conditional associations rather than definitive causal effects. The evidence shows that forward production-based GVC intensity is the most stable positive correlate of FDI-induced jobs, while GVC position is consistently negatively associated with job creation. Backward integration is more nuanced: production-based backward intensity is negative but statistically weaker in the aggregate baseline, and its adverse association is concentrated mainly in low-tech sectors. Formal interaction tests indicate that EU-15/new member-state heterogeneity is most clearly visible for GVC position. Mechanism-oriented evidence suggests that forward GVC participation is associated with larger employment scale per FDI project. Robustness checks using alternative clustering, support diagnostics, official OECD export-based TiVA shares, Poisson IV-GMM and classical PPML level specifications, and a sample excluding 2020 support the main interpretation while underscoring measurement limits.
中文摘要
本研究考察全球价值链（GVC）参与度与欧盟27国国家—行业配对层面绿地外商直接投资（FDI）所引致就业创造之间的关联。我们将项目层面的fDi Markets就业数据与基于TiVA的GVC指标相结合，并采用内部滞后工具变量估计静态固定效应IV-GMM劳动需求框架。由于识别策略不依赖外部外生变异来源，估计结果被解释为条件性关联而非确定性因果效应。证据表明，基于前向生产的GVC强度是FDI引致就业最稳定的正相关因素，而GVC位置则始终与就业创造呈负相关。后向参与更为复杂：基于生产的后向强度在总体基准中为负但统计上较弱，其不利关联主要集中于低技术行业。正式交互检验表明，欧盟15国/新成员国异质性在GVC位置上最为明显。机制导向的证据提示，前向GVC参与与每个FDI项目更大的就业规模相关。使用替代聚类、支持诊断、OECD官方基于出口的TiVA份额、Poisson IV-GMM与经典PPML水平设定，以及剔除2020年的样本所进行的稳健性检验支持主要解释，同时凸显了测量局限。