Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
从肉类到植物基产品？疯牛病对牛肉消费的持久影响
From Meat to Plant‐Based Products? The Enduring Impact of BSE on Beef Consumption
摘要
This study reassesses the impact of the historical BSE outbreak on EU diets, showing that consumption patterns shifted persistently even after policy actions eliminated the food safety risk. Utilizing advanced difference‐in‐differences techniques on 1980–2020 data, we demonstrate that while beef consumption exhibited a transient U‐shaped recovery relative to other meats, it declined sharply compared to plant‐based products, with average reductions of 79%, 29%, and 28% for pulses, cereals, and vegetable oils, respectively. This highlights a structural dietary change, overlooked by previous analyses focused on meat substitution. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses. Understanding the primary drivers behind the structural shift in EU consumer diets over recent decades is crucial for future research investigating the reduction in red meat consumption driven by environmental and health concerns in high‐income countries.
中文摘要
本研究重新评估了历史上疯牛病疫情对欧盟饮食结构的影响，结果表明即使在政策行动消除食品安全风险后，消费模式仍发生了持续性转变。基于1980-2020年数据，采用先进的双重差分技术，我们发现：牛肉消费相对于其他肉类呈现短暂的U型恢复，但相较于植物性产品则显著下降——豆类、谷物和植物油的消费量平均分别减少79%、29%和28%。这揭示了以往聚焦肉类替代效应的研究所忽视的结构性饮食变迁。敏感性分析证实了结果的稳健性。理解近几十年来欧盟消费者饮食结构变迁的主要驱动力，对于未来研究高收入国家因环境和健康担忧导致红肉消费减少的课题具有关键意义。