Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
从关税到餐桌：2025年关税政策下的美国牛肉价格
From Tariffs to the Dinner Table: US Beef Prices Under 2025 Tariff Policies
摘要
The 2025 US tariff policies provide a natural experiment to examine how import restrictions affect domestic prices. We construct a partial‐equilibrium Armington model in which the pass‐through of a tariff into retail prices decreases with a product's domestic supply elasticity and increases with its import dependence. We test these predictions using 2024–2026 US metropolitan‐level price data and a difference‐in‐differences design that compares beef products against alternative protein products and other consumer items. We find that tariffs significantly increased beef prices by approximately 8%–11% ($1.7–$2 per pound), with larger effects when domestic supply was more constrained and import dependence was higher, as the model predicts. These findings imply tariff assessments should weigh uneven consumer incidence, not aggregate price effects alone.
中文摘要
2025年美国关税政策为考察进口限制如何影响国内价格提供了自然实验。我们构建了一个局部均衡的阿明顿模型，其中关税向零售价格的传导随产品国内供给弹性下降而减弱，并随其进口依赖度上升而增强。我们使用2024—2026年美国大都市层面价格数据，并采用双重差分设计，将牛肉产品与替代蛋白产品及其他消费品进行比较，以检验这些预测。我们发现，关税显著提高了牛肉价格约8%—11%（每磅1.7—2美元），且在国内供给约束更强、进口依赖度更高时效应更大，这与模型预测一致。这些发现意味着，关税评估应权衡不均衡的消费者负担，而非仅关注总体价格效应。