Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
为连任而赌博
Gambling for Re-election
摘要
We show that gambling-style behaviour is important in politics: politicians ‛gamble for re-election‚ in the context of a political leader selection. We exploit unique access to leaked information on MPs' individual decisions in the 2021 leadership election of Germany's centre-right parties. MPs are more likely to vote for a riskier candidate when facing lower re-election chances. These results match the predictions derived from our model of rational risk-taking. Gambling for re-election shows that MPs trade off leaders' expected quality against their riskiness. It provides a new explanation for intra-party dissent, and rationalises why parties may choose low quality leaders.
中文摘要
我们表明，赌博式行为在政治中至关重要：在政治领导人遴选的背景下，政治家会“为连任而赌博”。我们利用独特渠道获取了关于德国中右翼政党2021年领导人选举中议员个人决策的泄露信息。当议员面临较低的连任机会时，他们更可能投票支持风险更高的候选人。这些结果与我们从理性冒险模型中推导出的预测相符。为连任而赌博表明，议员会在领导人的预期质量与其风险性之间进行权衡。这为党内分歧提供了一种新的解释，并合理说明了政党为何可能选择低质量的领导人。