天然气放空燃烧、农业生产率与劳动力再配置：来自尼日利亚的证据

摘要

This paper investigates the impact of natural gas flaring—a byproduct of oil production—on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Using a panel dataset of Nigerian households from the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) spanning 2012–2018, combined with geocoded data on monthly gas flaring volumes from oil fields, the study employs variation in the timing of interview surveys to assess effects of gas flaring during harvest and planting seasons. The analysis focuses on southern Nigeria, where oil production is concentrated, and leverages a 2010 policy reform (Local Content Act) that increased local onshore oil activities and thus gas flaring. The empirical strategy includes fixed effects (household, and region-by-month-by-year) to control for unobserved heterogeneity, weather variables (precipitation and temperature), and an instrumental variable approach using global oil price changes interacted with pre-sample flaring intensity to address endogeneity. Key outcomes measured are real crop yield per hectare and labor productivity (real agricultural output divided by worker-days). The findings reveal significant negative effects during the harvest season, particularly in rainy periods, but minimal impacts during planting. Mechanisms are explored through satellite data on air pollutants, showing elevated levels of black carbon, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide in flaring areas. Robustness checks confirm the results against various confounders like conflicts, oil spills, and placebo tests. The paper contributes to literature on the impact of air pollution on worker productivity and crop yields and climate change impacts on agriculture, highlighting policy needs to mitigate environmental costs from extractive industries in developing countries.