燃气轮机在澳大利亚国家电力市场（NEM）转型中的稳固机遇

摘要

A general industry expectation is that gas will be a required peak generation technology in the transition to net zero due to weather conditions and curtailed/delayed investment in other technologies such as pump hydro and variable renewable energy. This article investigates the corollary to this identified need: are open cycle gas turbines financially viable during the transition to net zero and longer term? Two stand-alone conventional peaking Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) plants, one natural gas and one hydrogen based, are examined over the transition to net zero in 2050 of the Australian Eastern Seaboard electricity grid. This is accomplished using a Net Present Value Discounted Cashflow modelling framework to determine if the net present value of the investing in and operating the gas generators is greater than zero – signifying a financially viable investment . Entering this modelling are estimates of the capital cost of the investment, wholesale market revenue and costs obtained from wholesale market modelling and the net proceeds to gas turbines offering CAPS hedge contracts. The wholesale market modelling was implemented using an agent-based structural model of the Australian National Electricity Market called the ‘ANEM” model’, drawing on assumptions and data published in the Australian Energy Market Operator's 2024 Integrated System Plan. Sensitivities were also investigated in the modelling and encompassed the: choice of gas turbines (e.g. older less efficient or newer and more efficient models); different weather conditions (i.e. high combined wind and solar, low solar, low wind/high solar); carbon pricing (applied to natural gas turbines); different costs of hydrogen (unsubsidised or subsidised); different modelling approaches to estimating project value beyond the forecast period linked to the wholesale market modelling if the gas generators technical life extended beyond the forecast horizon; and sensitivity to the price of CAPS contracts sold by the generator. The key findings are that: (1) open cycle gas turbines for both pure methane and pure hydrogen blends are financially viable under all weather conditions, with improved performance when variable renewable energy (both wind and solar) are poor, highlighting a heightened role of gas turbines in the firming of the grid; (2) the subsidisation of hydrogen fuel costs improves financial viability significantly; (3) the financial viability of conventional methane gas-fired turbines were fully demonstrated when operating with carbon pricing; and (4) some interesting factors capable of affecting the assessment of financial feasibility was the age/efficiency of the gas turbine, model used to extrapolate project cashflow beyond the forecast horizon used in the modelling and the price of CAPS contracts (called the premium) used in the modelling.