Econ Papers Daily / 工作论文
生成式AI、管理者预期与经济活动
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
摘要
Using generative AI, we extract managers’ economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other existing measures. Industry- and firm-level scores capture sector- and firm-specific activity, and a composite of firm, industry, and macroeconomic expectations further improves forecasting power and horizon. Predictability concentrates among historically more accurate, less biased managers, consistent with an information rather than a noise channel. Managerial expectations thus offer incremental insights into economic activity, with implications for macro- and microeconomic decision-making.
中文摘要
我们使用生成式AI从超过120,000份企业电话会议记录中提取管理者的经济预期。由此产生的AI经济评分可预测五个或更多季度后的GDP增长、生产、就业和工资，超越了调查预测和其他现有指标。行业和企业层面的评分捕捉行业和企业特定活动，而企业、行业和宏观经济预期的综合指标进一步提高了预测能力和期限。可预测性集中在历史上更准确、偏差更小的管理者中，这与信息渠道而非噪声渠道一致。因此，管理者预期为经济活动提供了增量洞察，对宏观和微观经济决策具有启示意义。