地缘政治风险与非洲净能源进口国的能源贫困：局部效应、结构性脆弱与条件性韧性

摘要

This study examines the relationship between geopolitical risk and energy poverty in 33 African net energy-importing economies from 2000 to 2023, focusing on fuel-import exposure, renewable energy, and institutional quality as vulnerability and resilience factors. Electricity poverty (ELP) is the primary outcome, while clean-cooking poverty (CCP) provides a complementary dimension of energy deprivation. The empirical strategy combines Panel Quantile ARDL-PMG with country-specific geopolitical risk, QCCEMG, Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality, conventional PMG-ARDL, and IV-based robustness checks. The results reveal a localized and specification-sensitive geopolitical-risk association. Global GPR is positively associated with ELP at the lower conditional quantile, but Wald tests do not support systematic cross-quantile heterogeneity, and the association disappears under QCCEMG. The lower-quantile association nevertheless remains visible under country-specific geopolitical risk and after excluding North African economies. Fuel-import exposure emerges as a structural vulnerability factor, particularly at higher electricity-poverty levels, while renewable energy provides only localized evidence of buffering geopolitical stress. QCCEMG further shows that renewable energy and institutional quality are associated with lower electricity deprivation at selected quantiles. Error-correction coefficients remain negative and highly significant across specifications, indicating stable adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Complementary causality and IV results indicate that the geopolitical-risk relationship is more consistently detected for clean-cooking poverty than for electricity poverty. Overall, geopolitical risk appears to operate as an external stressor whose consequences depend on pre-existing structural vulnerabilities and conditional resilience capacity.