Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
地缘政治冲击与欧洲家庭财务困境：俄乌战争
Geopolitical shocks and household financial distress in Europe: The Russia–Ukraine war
摘要
This paper examines the impact of a major geopolitical risk shock, comparable in scale to the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, on household financial distress in five European countries. We combine a VAR, household survey data, and theoretical insights to develop macro–micro simulations that quantify how such shocks influence household balance sheets. The VAR traces the macroeconomic effects of a surge in geopolitical risk, which we apply to household-level data using the HFCS. We find the shock is associated with elevated inflation, tighter monetary policy, higher mortgage rates, and falling house prices. Our simulations show these dynamics significantly increase financial distress, with variation across countries. We incorporate endogenous consumption responses and show that adjustments driven by interest rate exposure, inflation, and housing wealth play a key role in shaping household resilience. We also document that younger and lower-income households tend to increase consumption following the shock, exacerbating their financial vulnerability.
中文摘要
本文考察了一次规模可与俄乌战争爆发相媲美的重大地缘政治风险冲击对五个欧洲国家家庭财务困境的影响。我们结合VAR、家庭调查数据和理论洞见，构建宏观—微观模拟，以量化此类冲击如何影响家庭资产负债表。VAR刻画了地缘政治风险骤升的宏观经济效应，我们利用HFCS将其应用于家庭层面数据。我们发现，该冲击与通胀上升、货币政策收紧、抵押贷款利率上升以及房价下跌相关。我们的模拟表明，这些动态显著加剧了财务困境，且在不同国家之间存在差异。我们纳入了内生消费响应，并表明由利率敞口、通胀和住房财富所驱动的调整在塑造家庭韧性方面发挥了关键作用。我们还记录到，年轻家庭和低收入家庭在冲击后倾向于增加消费，从而加剧了其财务脆弱性。