全球大豆市场与土地利用排放：来自中国—巴西大豆贸易关系的证据

摘要

This study examines the dynamic association between Chinese soybean demand and Brazilian land-use CO₂ emissions within the China–Brazil soybean trade–environment system. Using annual data for 1990–2024, the analysis combines Johansen cointegration and a vector error-correction model (VECM) with structural-break tests, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), Local Projections, and complementary robustness estimators. With an effective VECM sample of 32 observations, the Johansen results provide suggestive evidence consistent with one long-run equilibrium relationship rather than definitive finite-sample proof. The normalised vector implies a negative long-run equilibrium association between imports and emissions, but this coefficient is not causal and may reflect omitted policy shifts, yield growth, pasture–soy substitution, or other unobserved common influences. Evidence of short-run adjustment is strongest in the import equation. A post-2006 dummy is significant for imports but not for emissions, while the single-break Bai–Perron specification places a break in 2007; multiple-break dates are treated as exploratory because the series is short. FEVD and Local Projection estimates indicate that the measured Chinese-demand shock accounts for only a small and imprecisely estimated share of emissions variability. The results therefore support cautious conclusions about dynamic co-movement and adjustment, not the claim that higher Chinese imports reduce Brazilian emissions or that the model directly identifies the domestic determinants of the remaining emissions variation.