Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
全球供应链中断与企业风险承担：来自中国的证据
Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Corporate Risk-Taking: Evidence from China*
摘要
Global supply chain pressures have intensified amid geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, exposing firms to greater operational and financial uncertainty. Using a comprehensive panel of Chinese listed manufacturing firms, this study examines whether and how global supply chain pressures affect firms’ ex-post risk-taking. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in firms’ exposure to supply chain pressures, we find a positive relation between supply chain pressures and ex-post risk-taking, and the impact of supply chain pressures is greater for firms with higher exposure. The result is robust to alternative measures of supply chain exposure and risk-taking and to a range of endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis shows that supply chain pressures lower supply chain concentration, reduce operational efficiency, erode firm value, and heighten stock price crash risk, thereby increasing firms’ subsequent risk-taking. Overall, the findings identify global supply chain pressures as an important source of corporate risk-taking and show how supply-side disruptions can amplify firms’ financial fragility.
中文摘要
全球供应链压力在地缘政治紧张与贸易摩擦的背景下不断加剧，使企业面临更大的运营与财务不确定性。本文基于中国制造业上市公司综合面板数据，考察全球供应链压力是否以及如何影响企业的事后风险承担。利用企业在供应链压力暴露程度上的横截面差异，我们发现供应链压力与企业事后风险承担之间存在正相关关系，且对于暴露程度更高的企业，供应链压力的影响更大。该结果在供应链暴露与风险承担的替代度量以及一系列内生性问题下均保持稳健。机制分析表明，供应链压力会降低供应链集中度、降低运营效率、侵蚀企业价值并加剧股价崩盘风险，从而增加企业后续的风险承担。总体而言，本文发现全球供应链压力是企业风险承担的重要来源，并揭示了供给侧冲击如何放大企业的财务脆弱性。