Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
枪支换黄油：武器转让的贸易效应
Guns for butter: Trade effects of arms transfers
摘要
Using a global dyadic panel from 1950 to 2021, we find a positive association between arms transfers from an exporter to an importer and general goods exports to that partner. The effects are short‐run: export responses peak around the transfer and fade within a few years. The arms‐trade linkage is smaller among highly institutionalized, high‐income partnerships and larger where security and commerce are more tightly bundled, especially in dyads linked by overseas military presence. Consistent with a political‐alignment channel, arms transfers are followed by lower United Nations voting disagreement. The associated trade increase does not reflect a symmetric improvement in relations.
中文摘要
利用1950年至2021年的全球双边面板数据，我们发现，出口国向进口国转让武器与该伙伴国的一般商品出口之间存在正相关关系。这种效应是短期的：出口反应在转让前后达到峰值，并在几年内逐渐消退。在高度制度化、高收入伙伴关系中，武器贸易关联度较小；而在安全与商业联系更为紧密的情况下，尤其是在存在海外军事存在的双边关系中，这种关联度则更大。与政治结盟渠道一致，武器转让后联合国投票分歧有所减少。相关的贸易增长并不反映双边关系的对称性改善。