Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
世界对移民而言变小了吗？移民中的边界与距离之谜
Has the World Become Smaller for Migrants? The Border and Distance Puzzles in Migration
摘要
This paper investigates whether the well‐documented border and distance puzzles in trade also apply to international migration. Using a gravity model framework, we explore the evolving role of borders and distance as barriers to migration in a globalized world. Our approach accounts for internal migration, addresses multilateral resistance to migration in alternative ways, and incorporates network effects along with international trade, investment and labour mobility agreements. The analysis covers a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and internal mobility for over 16,000 country pairs from 1995 to 2020. The results show that while the distance effect on migration has diminished over time, consistent with the reduction of frictions in a globalized world, the border puzzle persists, with borders continuing to act as significant barriers to migration. Sensitivity tests using alternative dependent variables, such as migration stocks and rates, confirm the robustness of these findings. The general gravity model, which accounts for origin and destination‐specific nests, provides a better fit and appears to resolve the distance puzzle by capturing the complexities of multilateral resistance to migration. However, the persistence of the border effect highlights the ongoing relevance of international borders in shaping global migration flows.
中文摘要
本文考察了贸易中已被充分记录的边界与距离之谜是否同样适用于国际移民。本文运用引力模型框架，探讨在全球化世界中边界与距离作为移民障碍的演变作用。本文的方法将国内迁移纳入考量，以替代方式处理对移民的多边阻力，并将网络效应与国际贸易、投资和劳动力流动协定一并纳入。分析覆盖1995年至2020年间超过16000对国家组合的双边移民流动与国内流动的综合数据集。结果表明，尽管距离对移民的影响随时间推移而减弱，这与全球化世界中摩擦的减少相一致，但边界之谜依然存在，边界继续成为移民的重要障碍。使用替代因变量（如移民存量和移民率）进行的敏感性检验证实了这些发现的稳健性。一般引力模型考虑了来源地和目的地特定的嵌套结构，提供了更好的拟合，并似乎通过捕捉对移民的多边阻力的复杂性解决了距离之谜。然而，边界效应的持续性凸显了国际边界在塑造全球移民流动方面持续具有的相关性。