Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文

乳制品业空气污染的健康损害：来自新墨西哥州的证据

Health Damages from Dairy Air Pollution: Evidence from New Mexico

Ghimire, Suraj, Goodkind, Andrew L., Wang, Jingjing

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来源

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics · 期刊论文

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2026-09-09 18:37

日期信息

官方在线 2026-06-03 · 来源：文章页面

主题

农业与食品环境与气候健康

摘要

This study quantifies health damages from dairy CAFO air emissions in New Mexico using farm-level atmospheric dispersion modeling, epidemiological concentration-response functions, and economic valuation. We estimate 20.6 annual premature deaths and $217.66 million in health costs (90% CI: $146.8Ð$297.6 million), equivalent to 15% of state dairy revenues. Over 99% of damages arise from unregulated ammonia emissions forming secondary PM2.5. Per-cow damages range from $544 (rural) to $1,086 (metro), driven by receptor population density rather than farm size. Extrapolation to major dairy states suggests national damages of $10.1Ð$64.9 billion annually, with a preferred estimate of $33.4 billion.

中文摘要

本研究采用农场尺度大气扩散模型、流行病学浓度-反应函数和经济价值评估方法，量化了新墨西哥州乳业CAFO空气排放造成的健康损害。我们估计每年造成20.6例过早死亡和2.1766亿美元健康成本（90%置信区间：1.468亿至2.976亿美元），相当于该州乳业收入的15%。超过99%的损害源于未受监管的氨排放形成的二次PM2.5。每头奶牛的损害从544美元（农村地区）到1，086美元（都市地区）不等，其驱动因素是受体人口密度而非农场规模。外推至主要乳业州，表明全国每年损害为101亿至649亿美元，首选估计值为334亿美元。