Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
隐藏在均值中：人工智能同时增加和减少就业岗位
Hiding in the mean: AI is adding jobs and removing them at the same time
摘要
Estimates of AI's employment effect disagree in size and even in sign. This column argues the disagreement is built into the measurement: AI substitutes for humans on some tasks and complements humans on others, and any single exposure index nets these opposing forces into one number. Classifying US work tasks by what they require of a human and letting the two forces enter separately, both effects appear at once: since 2021, highly substitutable work has grown 3.3 percentage points a year more slowly, and complemented work 3.3 points faster. The adjustment runs primarily through hiring rather than firing, and it lands on the young.
中文摘要
关于AI对就业影响的估算在幅度甚至方向上都不一致。本专栏认为，这种分歧内生于测量本身：AI在某些任务上替代人类，在另一些任务上补充人类，而任何单一的暴露指数都会将这些相反的力量净化为一个数字。按对人类的要求对美国工作任务进行分类，并让这两种力量分别进入，两种效应便同时显现：自2021年以来，高度可替代工作的增长速度每年慢3.3个百分点，而互补性工作的增长速度每年快3.3个百分点。这种调整主要通过招聘而非解雇实现，并且主要落在年轻人身上。