Econ Papers Daily / 研究评论
历史性货币紧缩与良性产出动态：大西洋两岸R-star上升
Historic monetary tightening, benign output dynamics: Rising R-stars across the Atlantic
摘要
Nominal interest rates increased significantly in the US and euro area following the post-pandemic inflation surge, yet economic activity and labour markets remained resilient. This column finds that accounting for policy expectations implies a larger increase in the natural rate of interest, r*, than standard approaches suggest. In the US, r* increased by around two percentage points and around 1.5 to 2 percentage points in the euro area. These increases are largely explained by changes in convenience yields. Thus, monetary policy stances were considerably less restrictive than commonly believed and this helps explain the soft landing in economic activity.
中文摘要
疫情后通胀飙升之后，美国和欧元区的名义利率显著上升，但经济活动和劳动力市场仍保持韧性。本专栏发现，考虑政策预期意味着自然利率r*的上升幅度大于标准方法所暗示的水平。在美国，r*上升了约两个百分点，欧元区上升了约1.5至2个百分点。这些上升在很大程度上可由便利收益的变化来解释。因此，货币政策立场比人们通常认为的限制性要小得多，这有助于解释经济活动的软着陆。