Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
意大利历史上的反法西斯主义与右翼投票
Historical Anti-Fascism and Right-Wing Voting in Italy
摘要
We study how anti-fascist opposition during Mussolini’s dictatorship affects post-war support for right-wing parties in Italy. We construct a measure of anti-fascism from the universe of recorded opponents, and use newly digitized historical data to resolve simultaneity between the supply of opposition and the demand for repression, leveraging the random assignment of judges to the Special Tribunal for the Defense of the State. Stronger local opposition leads to weaker support for right-wing parties decades later. Our model generates predictions about underlying mechanisms, tested using data on collective memorialization and parental voting behavior. The main driver is social transmission of political preferences.
中文摘要
我们研究了墨索里尼独裁时期反法西斯反对派如何影响战后意大利对右翼政党的支持。我们根据所有记录在案的反对者构建了一个反法西斯主义衡量指标，并利用新近数字化的历史数据，通过随机分配法官至国家防御特别法庭来解决反对派供给与镇压需求之间的同时性问题。地方反对力量越强，数十年后对右翼政党的支持就越弱。我们的模型生成了关于潜在机制的预测，并通过集体纪念活动和父母投票行为的数据进行了检验。主要驱动因素是政治偏好的社会传递。