Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
家庭对零售债券和定期存款的需求：波兰案例
Household demand for retail bonds and time deposits: The case of Poland
摘要
We examine household demand for retail government bonds and time deposits in Poland, a small open economy where households can purchase government bonds directly. Our analysis extends a literature focused on the U.S., where indirect household Treasury debt holdings dominate. Using issue-level data, we construct a bond aggregate and estimate the elasticity of substitution between bonds and deposits. We find that these assets are imperfect substitutes, with an estimated elasticity somewhat above the U.S. benchmark. Interestingly, when longer-maturity bonds are excluded from the bond aggregate we cannot reject perfect substitution with time deposits. Next, we construct a broader asset aggregate of bonds and deposits and find that demand for it is negatively related to the opportunity-cost spread, consistent with theory and U.S. evidence. Our findings suggest effective monetary policy transmission to household assets and a need for active bond issuance policy in countries like Poland.
中文摘要
我们考察波兰家庭对零售政府债券和定期存款的需求。波兰是一个小型开放经济，家庭可以直接购买政府债券。我们的分析拓展了以美国为重点的文献，在美国，家庭间接持有的国债占主导地位。利用发行层面数据，我们构建债券总量并估计债券与存款之间的替代弹性。我们发现这些资产是不完全替代品，估计弹性略高于美国基准。有趣的是，当从债券总量中排除较长期限债券时，我们无法拒绝其与定期存款完全替代。接下来，我们构建债券和存款的更广泛资产总量，并发现对其需求与机会成本利差负相关，这与理论及美国证据一致。我们的发现表明货币政策向家庭资产的有效传导，以及波兰等国家需要积极的债券发行政策。