Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
家庭流动性与货币政策的可调利率抵押贷款现金流渠道
Household liquidity and the adjustable-rate mortgage cash-flow channel of monetary policy
摘要
We examine what is widely considered to be one of the strongest channels of monetary policy transmission into household spending—the effect of changes in mortgage repayments when mortgage rates are linked to the short-term policy rate. Using bank transactions data from Australia, we analyze a cumulative 425 basis point increase in the central bank policy rate, which caused mortgage repayments for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages to increase by $13,800 over the tightening cycle. We find little change in the spending of adjustable-rate mortgagors relative to fixed-rate mortgagors. This is because adjustable-rate mortgagors used large excess repayment buffers they had accumulated to smooth consumption. Our findings demonstrate that high household liquidity, such as from a large fiscal stimulus, substantially weakens the effects of monetary tightening, even when there is a strong direct link between policy rates and household budgets.
中文摘要
我们考察了被广泛认为是货币政策向家庭支出传导的最强渠道之一——当抵押贷款利率与短期政策利率挂钩时，抵押贷款还款变化的影响。利用澳大利亚的银行交易数据，我们分析了央行政策利率累计上调425个基点的情况，这导致浮动利率抵押贷款房主的抵押贷款还款在紧缩周期内增加了13,800美元。我们发现，相对于固定利率抵押贷款者，浮动利率抵押贷款者的支出几乎没有变化。这是因为浮动利率抵押贷款者利用他们积累的巨额超额还款缓冲来平滑消费。我们的研究结果表明，高家庭流动性，例如来自大规模财政刺激的流动性，会大幅削弱货币紧缩的效果，即使政策利率与家庭预算之间存在很强的直接联系。