Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
住房泡沫与货币政策
Housing bubbles and monetary policy
摘要
This study develops an overlapping-generations New Keynesian model of housing bubbles that abstracts from financial frictions. A central finding is that housing bubbles and monetary policy jointly alter equilibrium determinacy and macroeconomic dynamics. Using E-stability as an equilibrium selection tool, we find a positive fundamental housing demand shock reduces consumption and raises inflation. By contrast, the effects of housing bubble shocks are regime-dependent. When the bubble is large and monetary policy is passive, bubble shocks can stimulate economic activity through wealth effects and endogenous monetary policy responses. When monetary policy is active, bubble shocks may instead reduce consumption, regardless of whether the bubble is small or large. The response reflects not only differences in monetary policy stance but also E-stability-based equilibrium selection. Finally, the dynamic effects of leaning against the wind policy vary sharply across regimes, amplifying or mitigating the macroeconomic impact of housing bubble shocks.
中文摘要
本研究构建了一个抽象掉金融摩擦的世代交叠新凯恩斯主义住房泡沫模型。核心发现是，住房泡沫与货币政策共同改变均衡确定性和宏观经济动态。以E-稳定性作为均衡选择工具，我们发现正向的基本面住房需求冲击会降低消费并推高通胀。相比之下，住房泡沫冲击的影响具有体制依赖性。当泡沫较大且货币政策被动时，泡沫冲击可通过财富效应和内生货币政策反应刺激经济活动。当货币政策主动时，无论泡沫是小还是大，泡沫冲击反而可能降低消费。这一反应不仅反映货币政策立场的差异，也反映基于E-稳定性的均衡选择。最后，逆风而行动政策的动态效应在不同体制下差异显著，或放大或缓解住房泡沫冲击的宏观经济影响。