Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
强制性最低刑罚有多重要？
How much do mandatory minimums matter?
摘要
Mandatory minimum (MM) sentencing is frequently identified as a driver of long sentences among federal drug offenders, but estimating its causal impact is complicated by prosecutorial discretion in charging. First, I show evidence of selective manipulation of MM eligibility, with prosecutors disproportionately choosing minority defendants for eligibility relative to comparable white defendants. This selection behavior creates bias in naive estimates of MM effects on sentence length. To recover the causal impact of MM eligibility, I use a regression discontinuity design with extrapolation that disentangles statutory effects from prosecutorial selection. I find that eligibility increases sentence length by approximately 10 months (14 percent) uniformly across case types, with no discernible heterogeneity across race. Together, these results indicate that racial disparities in MM sentencing arise primarily from prosecutorial charging decisions rather than from features of the statute itself.
中文摘要
强制性最低刑期（MM）量刑常被视为联邦毒品犯罪者长期监禁的一个驱动因素，但评估其因果影响因检察官在指控中的自由裁量权而变得复杂。首先，我展示了MM资格选择性操纵的证据，检察官相对于类似的白人被告，不成比例地选择少数族裔被告符合资格。这种选择行为在朴素估计MM对刑期长度的影响时造成了偏差。为恢复MM资格的因果效应，我采用带有外推的回归断点设计，以区分法定效应与检察官选择效应。我发现，资格使刑期平均增加约10个月（14%），且在不同案件类型中一致，种族间未观察到明显异质性。综合来看，这些结果表明，MM量刑中的种族差异主要源于检察官的指控决定，而非法规本身的特点。