Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
风能与太阳能如何侵蚀发电商收入：来自澳大利亚国家电力市场的证据
How Wind and Solar Erode Generator Revenues: Evidence From Australia's National Electricity Market
摘要
This paper uses daily data from 342 power generators in Australia's National Electricity Market to quantify the impacts of state‐level wind and solar generation on generator revenue from electricity sales. State‐level wind and solar generation potentials are used as instruments. Results show that percentage point increases in the state‐level daily wind and solar shares on average lead to 1.6% and 2.8% reductions in daily generator revenue, respectively. Increases in the state wind and solar shares benefit generators of those types. Higher wind shares significantly reduce the revenues of coal‐fired, gas/diesel and hydro generators, and higher solar shares significantly reduce coal‐fired generator revenues. Additional daily wind generation impairs generator revenue throughout the day, whereas for solar there are negative effects during daylight hours and positive effects in the evening. Effects emerge via altered dispatch patterns and reduced wholesale electricity prices. The findings are relevant for other jurisdictions undergoing similar transitions.
中文摘要
本文使用澳大利亚国家电力市场342台发电机的日度数据，量化州级风电和太阳能发电对发电机电力销售收益的影响。以州级风电和太阳能发电潜力作为工具变量。结果表明，州级日度风电和太阳能份额每提高一个百分点，平均分别导致发电机日度收益下降1.6%和2.8%。州级风电和太阳能份额上升使相应类型的发电机受益。风电份额上升显著降低燃煤、燃气/柴油和水力发电机的收益，太阳能份额上升显著降低燃煤发电机的收益。额外的日度风电发电在整个白天都会损害发电机收益，而太阳能则在日照时段产生负面影响，在傍晚产生正面影响。这些影响通过调度模式改变和批发电价下降而显现。研究结果对正在经历类似转型的其他司法辖区具有参考意义。