Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
识别武装冲突暴露对个人偏好与实地行为的影响：来自土耳其征兵退伍军人的证据
Identifying the impact of exposure to armed conflict on individual preferences and field behavior: Evidence from Turkish draft Veterans
摘要
Building on a population-level natural experiment, this study identifies the causal impact of exposure to armed conflict in a combatant role on risk, ambiguity and time preferences and related field behaviors for the average adult male randomly picked from the target population. Our setting allows us to analyze the difference in preferences without confoundment by community-level effects of conflict. Those exposed exhibit higher risk tolerance, ambiguity neutrality, patience and time consistency. We also find exposure leads to an increase in entrepreneurial activity but has no significant effect on risky health behaviors, and that elevated agency partially accounts for these shifts. Taken together, these patterns indicate that combat exposure alters preferences in ways that are not inherently positive or negative for economic welfare; what matters is how such preferences are expressed. Our results suggest agency as one potential channel through which exposure shapes this expression, making it more constructive than maladaptive in this setting.
中文摘要
本研究基于一项人口层面的自然实验，识别了以战斗人员身份暴露于武装冲突对随机抽取自目标人群的普通成年男性在风险偏好、模糊偏好和时间偏好及相关实地行为方面的因果影响。我们的研究情境使我们能够在不受冲突的社区层面效应混淆的情况下分析偏好差异。暴露者表现出更高的风险容忍度、模糊中性、耐心和时间一致性。我们还发现，暴露导致创业活动增加，但对高风险健康行为没有显著影响，并且 agency（能动性）的提升部分解释了这些变化。综合来看，这些模式表明，战斗暴露以对经济福利并非固有积极或消极的方式改变偏好；重要的是这些偏好如何被表达。我们的结果表明，agency 是暴露塑造这种表达的一个潜在渠道，使其在此情境下更具建设性而非适应不良。