Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
移民与地方通胀：来自美国城市的证据
Immigration and local inflation: Evidence from US cities
摘要
We estimate the impact of inward immigration on city-level inflation in the United States. We find that doubling the rate of immigration reduces inflation by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The disinflationary effect is concentrated in goods prices. Effects are larger for working-age immigrants, with suggestive but less precise evidence of stronger disinflationary effects from less-educated immigrants, especially in services. Housing markets respond differently: immigration increases local housing prices, with the largest effects for higher-education immigrants. Our results are jointly rationalized by a simple general equilibrium model where substitutability of capital and labor varies across industries but capital is fixed in the short run.
中文摘要
我们估算了美国境内移民流入对城市层面通货膨胀的影响。研究发现，移民率翻倍会使通货膨胀率下降约0.1至0.2个百分点。这一通缩效应主要集中在商品价格上。对于处于劳动年龄的移民，其影响更为显著；尽管证据尚不精确，但提示性结果表明，教育程度较低的移民，尤其是在服务业领域，可能带来更强的通缩效应。住房市场的反应则有所不同：移民推高了当地房价，其中对高学历移民的影响最为显著。我们的研究结果通过一个简单的通用均衡模型得到了统一解释，该模型假设资本与劳动的替代性在不同行业间存在差异，但短期内资本固定不变。