Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
信息通信技术创新与劳动时间：一个经济周期分析
Information and communication technology innovations and labor hours: A business cycle analysis
摘要
This paper examines the impact of changes in information and communication technologies (ICTs) on skilled and unskilled labor at the business cycle frequency. To achieve this, we construct aggregate hours series for both labor groups using the monthly outgoing rotation group of the Current Population Survey from 1994 to 2023. Our empirical analysis, conducted with a structural vector autoregressive model, shows that the working hours of both groups respond positively to ICT innovations with similar magnitudes. We demonstrate that our findings are consistent with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which ICT capital complements both skilled and unskilled labor, and suggest a plausible range of elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.
中文摘要
本文考察了信息与通信技术（ICT）变化在商业周期频率上对技能劳动力和非技能劳动力的影响。为实现这一目标，我们利用1994年至2023年当前人口调查的月度流出轮换组，构建了两个劳动力群体的总工时序列。我们使用结构向量自回归模型进行的实证分析表明，两个群体的工作时长对ICT创新均作出正向反应，且幅度相似。我们证明，我们的发现与一个动态随机一般均衡模型相一致，在该模型中，ICT资本与技能劳动力和非技能劳动力均互补，并提出资本与劳动力之间替代弹性的合理范围。