Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
制度型开放与人工智能发展：来自中国自由贸易试验区的证据
Institutional opening and the development of artificial intelligence: evidence from China’s pilot free trade zones
摘要
This paper examines whether China’s pilot free trade zones (FTZs) promote local artificial intelligence (AI) development. Using panel data for 284 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2023, we exploit the staggered rollout of FTZs within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that FTZ establishment significantly increases the city-year stock of registered AI-related firms. The findings remain robust across alternative DID estimators, placebo and falsification tests, sensitivity analysis for unobserved selection, and alternative functional forms. The results are also positive when granted AI-related patents are used as an alternative outcome. Channel analyses provide suggestive evidence that FTZ establishment is associated with greater labour mobility, improved access to financial resources, stronger entrepreneurial activity, and a more favourable business environment. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the estimated effect is significantly larger in eastern than in central cities and provides suggestive evidence of stronger effects in areas with higher pre-existing marketization.
中文摘要
本文考察中国自由贸易试验区（自贸区）是否促进当地人工智能（AI）发展。使用2008年至2023年284个地级市的面板数据，我们在双重差分框架内利用自贸区的交错 rollout。结果表明，自贸区设立显著提高了城市—年份的AI相关注册企业存量。该发现在替代DID估计量、安慰剂与证伪检验、不可观测选择敏感性分析以及替代函数形式下均保持稳健。当以获批的AI相关专利作为替代结果变量时，结果同样为正。渠道分析提供了提示性证据，表明自贸区设立与更高的劳动力流动性、更好的金融资源获取、更强的创业活动以及更有利的营商环境相关。异质性分析显示，估计效应在东部城市显著大于中部城市，并提供提示性证据表明在原有市场化程度较高的地区效应更强。