Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
保险与天然橡胶土地利用的永久性：来自中国海南对土地转型与碳动态的启示
Insurance and land-use permanence in natural rubber: Implications for land transitions and carbon dynamics from Hainan, China
摘要
This study evaluates how China's price-index insurance policy affects natural rubber land transitions in Hainan Province. We utilize satellite imagery to classify natural rubber land based on its unique phenological characteristics, specifically the leaf-off and refoliation signals. We then conduct a village-level analysis using a 2018–2021 panel of 719 villages to study the impact of insurance coverage on these land transitions. To establish causality, an instrumental variable (IV) strategy is introduced. Our results indicate that a 1% rise in the insured share causes a 0.055–0.237% increase in next-year rubber acreage. At the grower level, higher premiums and rubber prices reduce insurance take-up, whereas subsidies increase participation. Policy simulations show that a 1% increase in total subsidy expenditure raises insured acreage by approximately 0.29%, translating into a 0.016–0.069% increase in rubber acreage. The estimated carbon benefits exceed fiscal costs when valued using the social cost of carbon, although not at prevailing domestic carbon-market prices. Future climate projections further indicate the need for dynamic subsidy adjustments to sustain insurance participation under increasing climate risk.
中文摘要
本研究评估了中国价格指数保险政策如何影响海南省天然橡胶的土地流转。我们利用卫星影像，依据天然橡胶独特的物候特征，特别是落叶与重新展叶信号，对天然橡胶土地进行分类。随后，我们使用2018—2021年719个村庄的面板数据进行村级分析，以研究保险覆盖对这些土地流转的影响。为建立因果关系，引入了工具变量（IV）策略。结果表明，参保份额每提高1%，下一年橡胶种植面积增加0.055%—0.237%。在种植者层面，较高的保费和橡胶价格会降低保险参与率，而补贴则提高参与率。政策模拟显示，总补贴支出每增加1%，参保面积约增加0.29%，进而使橡胶种植面积增加0.016%—0.069%。按碳的社会成本估值时，估计的碳收益超过财政成本，但按现行国内碳市场价格估值时则并非如此。未来气候预测进一步表明，需要动态调整补贴，以在气候风险上升的情况下维持保险参与。