Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
滚动危机下的国际储备管理
International Reserve Management Under Rollover Crises
摘要
This article investigates how a government should manage international reserves when it faces the risk of a rollover crisis. We ask: Should the government accumulate reserves or reduce debt to make itself less vulnerable? We show that the optimal policy entails initially reducing debt, followed by a subsequent increase in both debt and reserves as the government approaches a safe zone. Furthermore, we find that issuing additional debt to accumulate reserves can lead to a reduction in sovereign spreads. Evidence from a panel of emerging economies is consistent with these predictions: increases in reserves financed by public external borrowing are associated with lower spreads, and reserve holdings are not systematically drawn down during crisis episodes.
中文摘要
本文研究政府面临展期危机风险时应如何管理国际储备。我们提出的问题是：政府应通过积累储备还是减少债务来降低自身脆弱性？研究表明，最优政策路径是先减少债务，随后在政府接近安全区域时同步增加债务与储备。此外，我们发现通过增发债务来积累储备可降低主权利差。来自新兴经济体的面板数据与这些预测一致：由公共外部借款融资的储备增加与利差下降相关，且危机期间储备持有量并未系统性减少。