Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
日本低通胀：三十年来成本推动定价与银行信贷的结构向量自回归分析
Japan’s Low Inflation: A Structural VAR Analysis of Cost-Push Pricing and Bank Lending over Three Decades
摘要
This article examines how Japan’s three-decade period of ultra-easy monetary policy interacted with persistently low inflation. Using a structural vector autoregressive model informed by Keynesian cost-push and conflict-inflation theories and long-run quarterly data for 1991–2023, the analysis identifies corporate price markups and bank lending as important drivers of inflation. The results also reveal a distinctive form of conflict inflation: increases in wage costs did not necessarily translate into higher prices, while periods of cost pass-through were accompanied by corresponding wage increases. Amongst six monetary policy instruments, only monetary-base expansion had an indirect effect on inflation through its positive effect on bank lending. Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy therefore contributed to preventing deflation primarily by supporting bank lending rather than through direct effects on inflation. The findings highlight the importance of considering the interaction amongst firms’ pricing power, credit conditions, and wage formation when assessing inflation dynamics and monetary policy effectiveness.
中文摘要
本文考察日本长达三十年的超宽松货币政策如何与持续低通胀相互作用。基于凯恩斯主义成本推动与冲突通胀理论构建结构向量自回归模型，并采用1991—2023年长期季度数据，分析识别出企业价格加成和银行信贷是通胀的重要驱动因素。结果还揭示了一种独特的冲突通胀形式：工资成本上升未必转化为更高价格，而成本转嫁时期则伴随相应的工资上涨。在六种货币政策工具中，只有基础货币扩张通过其对银行信贷的正向效应间接影响通胀。因此，日本的超宽松货币政策主要通过支持银行信贷而非直接作用于通胀来防止通缩。研究结论强调，在评估通胀动态与货币政策有效性时，需考虑企业定价能力、信贷条件与工资形成之间的相互作用。