气候变化对沙特阿拉伯电力需求和家庭支出的长期影响

摘要

With regional warming across the Arabian Peninsula occurring at twice the global average and driving summer peak electricity loads to nearly 80% of total system capacity, understanding long-term energy implications is critical for Saudi Arabia's national climate resilience. Consequently, this study assesses the impacts of climate change on thermal comfort, energy demand, and household electricity expenditure through 2100. Using the multi-sectoral Global Change Assessment Model for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (GCAM-KSA), we integrated three regionally updated Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–3) with two climate pathways: RCP7.0 (high impact) and RCP2.6 (low impact). Our results indicate a shift in thermal conditions by 2100 relative to the 1981–2014 baseline. Cooling Degree Days (CDD) are projected to increase up to 28% and 85% under the low and high-impact pathways, respectively, while Heating Degree Days (HDD) remain negligible. Furthermore, the temporal distribution of CDD expands significantly, representing a substantial lengthening of the summer season beyond mid-century. By isolating socioeconomic and climate drivers, we find that high socioeconomic development (SSP3) initially drives a 33–53% rise in cooling demand through 2060 compared to 2025. However, climate impacts emerge as the dominant accelerator between 2060 and 2100, independently driving cooling service demand up by an additional 38–49% (RCP7.0) and 13–16% (RCP2.6). Consequently, annual average household expenditures attributable to climate impacts are projected to increase by 32–45% (RCP7.0) and 7–11% (RCP2.6) in 2100. These findings highlight the importance of integrating climate adaptation strategies into long-term energy planning to mitigate rising household expenditure.