Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
重大全球性 disruption 与粮食安全关联——伊朗战争与咽喉要道紧张局势如何影响全球饥饿
Major Global Disruptions and Food Security Links–How the Iran War and Chokepoint Tensions May Affect Global Hunger
摘要
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East in 2026 and the disruptions affecting major maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‐Mandeb/Red Sea corridor, threaten global food security through higher energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs. We argue that the shock is more structural than previous crises because it simultaneously affects core agricultural inputs and trade routes, unlike the 2022 price spike in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which primarily caused temporary supply shortages. This has especially severe consequences for import‐dependent economies in the Gulf area, Africa, and other low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). While energy price shocks can be transmitted relatively quickly to food markets through immediate changes in production and transportation costs, shipping cost and fertilizer price shocks tend to operate with longer adjustment lags because they propagate through physical supply chains and agricultural production processes. Prolonged energy market disruptions stemming from conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, together with tensions affecting Bab el‐Mandeb, or future disruptions from (geo)political conflicts, entail the risk of trade policy responses and further market disturbances that could exacerbate the ongoing crisis. We highlight that rising prices for energy, shipping, and food are placing an immense strain on LMICs already burdened by heavy debt, limited access to finance, and inflationary pressure, with implications for food security and hunger.
中文摘要
2026年中东冲突升级以及影响主要海上咽喉要道——特别是霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡/红海走廊——的 disruptions，通过推高能源、化肥和航运成本威胁全球粮食安全。我们认为，此次冲击比以往危机更具结构性，因为它同时影响核心农业投入品和贸易路线，不同于2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后引发的价格飙升，后者主要造成临时性供应短缺。这对海湾地区、非洲及其他中低收入国家（LMICs）中依赖进口的经济体尤其具有严重后果。尽管能源价格冲击可通过生产成本和运输成本的即时变化相对迅速地传导至粮食市场，但航运成本冲击和化肥价格冲击往往具有较长的调整滞后，因为它们通过实体供应链和农业生产过程传播。源自霍尔木兹海峡周边冲突的能源市场长期中断，加之影响曼德海峡的紧张局势，或未来（地缘）政治冲突造成的干扰，均带来贸易政策反应和进一步市场动荡的风险，可能加剧当前危机。我们强调，能源、航运和粮食价格上涨正给本已背负沉重债务、融资渠道有限和通胀压力的LMICs带来巨大压力，并对粮食安全和饥饿产生影响。