Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
衡量通胀预期：响应量表如何塑造密度预测
Measuring inflation expectations: How the response scale shapes density forecasts
摘要
In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre‐specified ranges of inflation. In two large‐scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the results: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Quantifying this effect using the scale most widely used among central banks, we find that mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can vary by several percentage points. Density forecasts may severely misestimate the “true” inflation expectations, and may generate spurious changes in reported inflation uncertainty. The analysis suggests several ways to reduce this bias.
中文摘要
在密度预测中，受访者需对预设通胀区间的响应量表分配概率。通过在美国和德国开展的两项大规模实验，我们揭示了响应量表的具体设计如何决定预测结果：移动、压缩或扩展量表会导致预测值相应偏移、压缩或扩展。采用央行最广泛使用的量表量化这一效应后，我们发现平均预测值、不确定性和分歧程度可能相差数个百分点。密度预测可能严重误估"真实"通胀预期，并导致报告的通胀不确定性出现虚假变化。分析表明，可通过多种方式减少此类偏差。