Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
区域贸易协定的微观至宏观收益：来自RCEP的证据
Micro‐to‐Macro Gains From Regional Trade Agreements: Evidence From RCEP
摘要
We assess how the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—the Asia–Pacific's largest trade agreement—affects trade and welfare when firms differ in productivity. Using a widely applied firm‐level trade framework, we quantify how lower tariffs and easier market entry reshape which firms export, the volume of trade and the gains for member economies. Most benefits arise because more productive firms start exporting and expand, while less efficient producers shrink or exit. This reallocation towards high‐productivity firms raises overall efficiency, with stronger effects in sectors that face limited import competition. Beyond the familiar gains from higher trade volumes and better international prices, RCEP delivers additional benefits from greater product variety and from domestic productivity improvements driven by firm entry and exit. Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia benefit the most from RCEP, with welfare gains of 22.2%, 5.73% and 2.37%, respectively, while China, Japan and South Korea gain relatively less, at 0.37%, 0.50% and 0.49%, respectively. The magnitude of tariff reductions primarily underlies these welfare changes. The shape parameters of productivity distribution also have a non‐negligible impact on welfare outcomes, and the relative productivity dispersion between domestic and foreign firms matters as well when the shape parameters are allowed to vary across countries. Our results highlight that ignoring firm dynamics tends to understate the agreement's welfare effects.
中文摘要
本文评估了亚太地区最大的贸易协定——《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）在企业生产率存在差异时对贸易和福利的影响。本文采用一个广泛应用的企业层面贸易框架，量化了关税降低和市场准入改善如何重塑哪些企业出口、贸易规模以及成员经济体的收益。大部分收益源于生产率较高的企业开始出口并扩张，而效率较低的生产者则收缩或退出。这种向高生产率企业的再配置提高了整体效率，在面临有限进口竞争的部门中效应更强。除了贸易量增加和国际价格改善带来的常见收益外，RCEP还通过产品种类增加以及由企业进入和退出推动的国内生产率提升带来额外收益。马来西亚、越南和柬埔寨从RCEP中获益最大，福利收益分别为22.2%、5.73%和2.37%，而中国、日本和韩国的收益相对较小，分别为0.37%、0.50%和0.49%。关税削减幅度是这些福利变化的主要基础。生产率分布的形态参数对福利结果也具有不可忽视的影响，当允许形态参数在国家间变化时，国内外企业之间的相对生产率离散程度同样重要。本文结果表明，忽略企业动态往往会低估该协定的福利效应。