Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
货币政策不变性、滞后效应与最优通胀
Monetary Policy Invariance, Hysteresis, and Optimal Inflation
摘要
Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below 2%, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop an NK framework with endogenous productivity and downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) which challenges these results. The interaction between endogenous growth and DNWR generates asymmetric hysteresis effects on unemployment and R&D. As a consequence, the model features a nonvertical long-run Phillips curve and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that changes the welfare-maximizing inflation rate to above 2%. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times those in traditional NK models. Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment rate address more effectively the asymmetric hysteresis in our model. Results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on interest rates.
中文摘要
标准新凯恩斯（NK）模型的特征是最优通胀目标远低于2%、经济周期波动带来的福利损失有限以及长期货币中性。我们构建了一个包含内生生产率和向下名义工资刚性（DNWR）的NK框架，对上述结论提出了挑战。内生增长与DNWR之间的相互作用对失业和研发产生了非对称的滞后效应。因此，该模型具有非垂直的长期菲利普斯曲线，以及价格扭曲与产出滞后之间的权衡，这使福利最大化通胀率上升至2%以上。偏离最优目标所带来的福利成本是传统NK模型中的数倍。对失业率作出反应的泰勒规则在我们模型中能更有效地应对非对称滞后。将有效利率下限纳入考量后，结果依然稳健。