Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
应对气候冲击：政府主导的韧性投资的宏观经济与金融稳定作用
Navigating climate shocks: The macroeconomic and financial stabilizing role of government-led resilience investments
摘要
Extreme climate events destroy capital, amplify financial frictions, and occur with probabilities that depend endogenously on emissions. We study these interactions in a New Keynesian environmental DSGE model with green and brown firms, disaster risk, bank balance-sheet frictions, and resilience capital. Resilience investment mitigates output losses and stabilizes banks by substituting for damaged private capital. When recovery is concentrated in brown production, resilience investment can generate an emissions rebound. A carbon tax contains this rebound and raises welfare, whereas green quantitative easing mainly reallocates credit and provides limited aggregate stabilization. Effective resilience policy therefore requires coordination across adaptation, mitigation, and financial stability.
中文摘要
极端气候事件会摧毁资本、放大金融摩擦，且其发生概率内生于排放水平。我们在一个包含绿色企业与棕色企业、灾害风险、银行资产负债表摩擦以及韧性资本的新凯恩斯环境DSGE模型中研究这些相互作用。韧性投资通过替代受损的私人资本，减轻产出损失并稳定银行。当复苏集中于棕色生产时，韧性投资可能引发排放反弹。碳税能够遏制这种反弹并提高福利，而绿色量化宽松主要重新配置信贷，提供的总量稳定作用有限。因此，有效的韧性政策需要在适应、减缓与金融稳定之间进行协调。