Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
异见网络：威权政体中的社会领袖与抗议
Networks of Dissent: Social Leaders and Protest in an Autocracy*
摘要
This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1,600 Protestant pastors and construct network ties based on shared employment histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by 7.1 percentage points in a given week. Evidence from quasi-random connections, placebo networks, and an IV strategy supports a causal interpretation of these results.
中文摘要
本文考察了地方社会领袖之间的网络联系如何影响威权体制下大规模抗议的扩散。我们聚焦于新教教会与东德和平革命。为量化领袖网络在抗议扩散中的作用，我们整理了1600多名新教牧师的传记记录，并基于共同的任职经历构建网络联系。研究发现，网络连接使特定一周内抗议扩散的概率提高了7.1个百分点。来自准随机联系、安慰剂网络和工具变量策略的证据支持对这些结果的因果解释。