Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
无聚集却有响应：间歇性计费下递增阶梯定价的家庭电力需求
No bunching, yet response: Household electricity demand under increasing block pricing with intermittent billing
摘要
This paper studies residential electricity demand under Increasing Block Pricing (IBP) with intermittent billing, where cycle-level information on realized usage and billed charges becomes available only after a billing cycle ends. Using monthly billing records for 199,090 households served by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District between 2005 and 2008, I apply a sharp regression discontinuity (RD) design around the lower-tier Baseline Usage Quantity, where the marginal price rises discontinuously. The estimate indicates a reduction of 0.058 kWh/day in average daily consumption during the subsequent billing cycle, equivalent to about 0.26% of the local control-group mean. Under the RD assumptions, this estimate represents a local, cycle-averaged threshold-crossing effect near the cutoff. This ex post response coexists with the absence of sharp ex ante bunching in observed consumption, showing that the absence of sharp bunching need not imply the absence of price responsiveness under intermittent billing. The design does not distinguish among competing behavioral mechanisms, but the next-cycle timing pattern makes feedback timing a relevant consideration for nonlinear tariff design.
中文摘要
本文研究了在阶梯定价（IBP）与间歇性账单制度下的居民电力需求，在该制度下，关于实际用电量和账单费用的周期层面信息只有在账单周期结束后才能获得。利用萨克拉门托市政公用事业区在2005年至2008年间服务的199，090户家庭的月度账单记录，我围绕较低档的基准用电量采用了尖锐断点回归（RD）设计，在该基准处边际价格出现不连续上升。估计结果表明，在随后的账单周期内，日均消费量减少了0.058千瓦时/天，约相当于当地对照组均值的0.26%。在断点回归假设下，这一估计代表了断点附近局部的、按周期平均的跨阈值效应。这种事后反应与观察到的消费中不存在明显的预先聚集现象并存，表明在间歇性账单制度下，缺乏明显的聚集并不必然意味着不存在价格反应。该设计无法区分相互竞争的行为机制，但下一周期的时点模式使反馈时点成为非线性电价设计中的一个相关考量因素。