Offshoring and voting patterns in the US

摘要

This paper studies the impact of offshoring by US firms on voting patterns in the US. Using county-level voting data combined with industry-level offshoring data, we ask whether an increase in employment at foreign affiliates of US multinationals in vertically oriented industries is associated with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party candidate in Presidential, House, and Senate elections. We find that offshoring leads to an increase in the incumbent vote share for counties with more educated workers, and a decrease for counties with higher shares of workers in the manufacturing sector and in occupations that are more easily relocated abroad. These results are consistent with the labor market literature on offshoring, which shows that offshoring has heterogeneous effects on workers’ employment based on skill and occupational tasks. This suggests that voters respond to the economic effects of offshoring by rewarding or punishing incumbent party candidates.