石油冲击不再像过去那样影响美国经济

摘要

Recent disruptions to global oil markets, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the war in Iran, have revived fears of stagflation. This column shows that the shale revolution has fundamentally changed how the US economy responds to oil shocks. As the country has shifted from a major petroleum importer to a net exporter, adverse oil supply news has become considerably less contractionary and can even support activity, with benefits extending beyond the oil sector. The findings suggest that the Federal Reserve faces a more favourable trade-off between activity and inflation, even as households and firms remain exposed to higher energy costs.