Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
论通过季内供应分配提升特种作物生产者预测能力的价值
On the Value of Improved Forecasting for Specialty Crop Producers Through Intra‐Season Supply Allocations
摘要
How to manage harvest and storage of agricultural products has been one of the long‐lasting questions in agricultural economics. We study the value of improved forecast accuracy for the producers in the context of intra‐seasonal supply allocation, particularly for specialty crops with multiple harvest cycles within a season. We first explore how the forecast accuracy affects intra‐seasonal storage decisions. We then derive the expression for the marginal value of the improved forecast accuracy and show that the gains from the improvement in the forecast accuracy occur by shifting the optimal storage choices to those under certainty (i.e., the state is revealed) from those under uncertainty. Finally, we provide numerical illustrations on how the value of the improved forecast accuracy for the producers differs across different degrees of market power showing that relative gains from the improvement are larger when the market is more competitive. We conclude by drawing broader implications highlighting the importance of the interaction among information, storage and market structure.
中文摘要
如何管理农产品的收获与储存一直是农业经济学中长期存在的问题之一。本文研究在季内供给配置背景下，尤其是对在一个季节内具有多个收获周期的特色作物而言，提高预测精度对生产者所具有的价值。我们首先探讨预测精度如何影响季内储存决策。随后，我们推导出预测精度提高的边际价值表达式，并表明预测精度提高所带来的收益，是通过将最优储存选择从不确定性下的选择转向确定性下（即状态被揭示）的选择而实现的。最后，我们提供数值示例，说明预测精度提高对生产者的价值如何随不同程度的市场势力而变化，表明当市场更具竞争性时，预测精度提高所带来的相对收益更大。我们最后给出更广泛的启示，强调信息、储存与市场结构之间相互作用的重要性。