Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
海外留学生、意识形态与中华帝制的崩溃
Overseas students, ideology, and the fall of dynastic China
摘要
This paper examines the catalysis of an epochal institutional change by the contributions of a foreign-educated elite, effectively ending dynastic China. We show how the Qing government’s attempt to build a modern nation-state by sending the country’s best talent to study in Japan inadvertently heightened the students’ nationalist desire for social and political changes, culminating in the fall of the Qing dynasty. Specifically, each additional overseas student in a county led to significantly greater participation in political parties by the people of that county (41.5%), greater representation of its elite in the provincial assembly (11.4%), and a greater likelihood of that county declaring independence (11.5%) during the 1911 Revolution. To identify causality, we leverage the influence of the network of Zhang Zhidong – the father of overseas study – on the spatial variation of overseas students from each county. To ensure that the networks thus formed are plausibly exogenous, we exploit pre-existing connections – specifically those that Zhang formed with local officials before their randomized (re-)appointment to a (different) county – and the instrumented results hold. Last, we show that schools and newspapers were the primary channels through which the people were mobilized.
中文摘要
本文考察了海外留学精英的贡献如何催化了一场划时代的制度变革，并最终终结了帝制中国。研究表明，清政府试图通过派遣国内顶尖人才赴日留学来构建现代民族国家，却无意中强化了学生的民族主义诉求，推动社会与政治变革，最终导致清朝覆灭。具体而言，每增加一名海外留学生，该县民众参与政党的比例显著提升41.5%，精英在省议会中的代表比例增加11.4%，且在1911年辛亥革命期间该县宣布独立的可能性提高11.5%。为识别因果关系，我们利用张之洞（海外留学之父）的人际网络对各县留学生空间分布的影响。为确保由此形成的网络具有外生性，我们借助张之洞与地方官员在随机（重新）任命至（不同）县之前已存在的联系，工具变量结果保持稳健。最后，研究表明学校和报纸是动员民众的主要渠道。