Econ Papers Daily / 期刊论文
祈雨
Praying for Rain
摘要
We study rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. We present a model in which a religious leader tries to persuade people to believe. Praying for rain can persuade only where the hazard of rainfall during a dry spell is increasing over time, so that prayer is most likely to succeed when people most want rain. We present evidence from prayers for rain in Murcia, Spain, where the hazard rate is increasing, that the church’s prayers for rain predict rainfall over two centuries. To generalize this finding, we gather an original data set of whether ethnic groups around the world traditionally prayed for rain. We find that ethnic groups facing an increasing rainfall hazard are 47% more likely to pray for rain, consistent with our model’s prediction that societies are more likely to pray for rain where prayer is persuasive.
中文摘要
我们研究求雨作为一种工具性宗教信仰。我们构建了一个模型，其中宗教领袖试图说服人们相信求雨的有效性。只有当干旱期内降雨风险随时间递增时，求雨祈祷才具有说服力——这意味着祈祷最可能在人们最渴望降雨时成功。我们以西班牙穆尔西亚地区的求雨祈祷为证据，该地区降雨风险率呈递增趋势，发现教堂的求雨祈祷在两个世纪中持续预测了实际降雨。为推广这一发现，我们收集了全球各民族是否传统上举行求雨祈祷的原始数据集。研究发现，面临递增降雨风险的民族举行求雨祈祷的可能性高出47%，这与模型预测一致：在祈祷更具说服力的社会中，人们更可能进行求雨祈祷。